By Mark Strand

Last week, after Israel attacked Iran, the Russian Foreign Ministry put out the exceedingly ironic statement:

“Unprovoked military strikes against a sovereign UN member state, its citizens, sleeping peaceful cities, and nuclear energy infrastructure facilities are categorically unacceptable. ”

I think we can all agree with that statement. Russia should prove they are sincere by halting its military strikes against Ukraine, a sovereign UN member state, its citizens, and its sleeping peaceful cities and nuclear energy infrastructures.

If I hold my breath waiting, somebody, please stop me.

This absurd statement from the Russians reflects Vladimir Putin’s stalling tactics regarding President Trump’s peace initiative for Ukraine. It’s an insult to the President, who has gone out of his way to offer incentives to the Russian aggressor.

But as Holman Jenkins wrote in the Wall Street Journal on May 27:

If you’re Vladimir Putin, how can you sign a cease-fire deal when there seems a chance, if you refrain from signing, Donald Trump will cut off Ukraine’s military supplies and instantly transform Russia’s negotiating position for the better? You can’t. Even Trump officials probably understand why this consideration has made a successful negotiation structurally impossible.

Time to change strategy. It’s time to use the stick.

Putin’s strategy involves continuing to send his troops to the slaughter fields for as long as necessary to wear down President Trump. His hope, of course, is that the United States will wash its hands of the war in Ukraine, resulting in our ally running out of weapons to defend itself. Putin dreams of achieving a significant breakthrough this summer (just like the last three summers’ worth of dreams) that would break the back of Ukrainian resistance.

However, Russian losses have been horrific.

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces have sustained over one million casualties since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, over half of which occurred since January 2024. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on June 12 that Russian forces have sustained 628,000 casualties since January 2024. The Ukrainian General Staff also reported a breakdown of Russian casualty rates since 2022: Russian forces reportedly sustained 106,720 casualties in 2022 (average of 340 casualties per day); 253,290 casualties in 2023 (average of 693 casualties per day); and 430,790 casualties in 2024 (average of 1,177 casualties per day).

Russian forces have reportedly sustained an average of 1,286 casualties per day between January and early June 2025 in exchange for marginal territorial gains. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces had already sustained over 200,000 casualties in 2025 as of June 4, 2025. Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) news agency ArmyInform reported on June 5 that an unnamed NATO official stated that Russian forces are sustaining an average casualty rate of 1,140 personnel per day.

Even if you believe that the Ukrainians inflate Russian casualty totals, they are still not far from what Western intelligence agencies have reported.

What kind of leader would willingly send 1,140 fellow citizens to their graves or a hospital bed every single day for the marginal gains the Russians are making? It would have to be someone whose ambitions surpass his love for the country.

While the Russian people’s capacity for suffering is legendary, even they must hit a breaking point, especially with Ukraine’s demonstrated ability to strike deep into Russian territory.

If President Trump wants peace, he must undermine Putin’s ambitions. The best way to bring Putin back to the negotiating table would be for Russia to begin losing the territory it currently occupies in Ukraine. As long as Russian forces are gaining territory, no matter how small the gains, Putin will not negotiate. Therefore, if you are a deal maker, your strategy needs to change the current dynamic so that Putin starts losing territory.

As much as I wish it were otherwise, Ukraine is not positioned militarily to reclaim all of its lost territory. However, it could identify a weak spot to push Russia back, provided it receives the best intelligence from our military experts, the right weapons, and elite Ukrainian troops. If Russia starts to lose territory, the entire dynamic of peace negotiations shifts. Each day Putin delays, he controls less territory than the day before, increasing the pressure on him to agree to a ceasefire.

The key to achieving peace is equipping Ukraine with more weapons and intelligence, not less. Strength provides the opportunity for peace, while weakness leads to hundreds of thousands more deaths. History 101: strength deters war; weakness invites it.

The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk may have boosted morale, but it squandered many elite troops who ultimately had to withdraw anyway. Those troops could have been better utilized to achieve a breakthrough in the Russian lines. That's water under the bridge, but hopefully, it has been instructive.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to murder and maim dozens of Ukrainian citizens every night with its drones and glide bombs. As we have seen in Chechnya, Syria, and Ukraine, the Russian strategy is to level cities, completely destroying them, and, consequently, eliminate Ukrainian defensive positions. All they occupy is the rubble, and the Ukrainian population escapes to free territory. This is not exactly what you would expect from a ruler who claims he is protecting Russian people from their “Nazi” government.

Is it possible that Trump sees more value in a long-term relationship with Putin than in defending Ukraine? Maybe. However, even if that’s the case, he would likely have a stronger relationship with Putin if the dictator felt compelled to respect American strength and determination. Pressuring Putin into agreeing to a ceasefire would also enhance Trump’s standing with other adversaries who are watching him closely.

Gorbachev respected Ronald Reagan, and they got along very well because the Russian leader understood that the United States was stronger than the fading Soviet Union. Donald Trump could learn a thing or two from the Gipper.

The opposite is also true. If the world perceives Trump as weak or indecisive regarding Ukraine, they will factor that into their foreign policy strategies, just as Putin did with President Biden following the incompetent and tragic withdrawal from Afghanistan. The stakes for the United States will be even higher in China, where most war strategists estimate that even if we prevent a Chinese victory over Taiwan, we could lose multiple aircraft carriers, dozens of warships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of personnel within the first three weeks. This does not even account for the havoc Chinese hackers could wreak on America’s electrical grid and financial systems. Demonstrating weakness is perilous.

To be blunt, Trump's treatment of Putin is likely to directly influence how Xi Jinping approaches Trump. If he believes that Trump can be deterred by his weaker partner, his appetite for Taiwan will only grow as his respect for Trump diminishes.

Perhaps we will see the resolve of President Trump in the Israel-Iran conflict in the next few days. Will he settle before the Iranian nuclear program is destroyed? Or will he ruin their ability to produce nuclear weapons and set the stage for long-awaited regime change? And will he remember that strength is a far better negotiating tool than coddling?

Trump will have Congress's support. Last month, senators gained 80 co-sponsors for a bill to impose new, draconian sanctions on Russia. The House voted to allocate over $1 trillion for defense next year.

Trump stands to gain significantly by taking a strong stance in Ukraine and Iran. Any display of weakness, or the belief that a dictator can charm him, would lead to the President losing respect both domestically and internationally.

World leaders appeared to like Joe Biden, but did not respect him. Trump seems unconcerned about foreign leaders disliking him, but that is quite different from them losing respect for him. If that occurs, the Trump agenda is finished, and the country will once again wait for another presidential election that might finally restore America’s standing in the world.

But oh, at what a cost.